Holiday Returns Statistics 2026: National Returns Day & Trends

TL;DR: Holiday Returns Statistics 2026

Introduction

U.S. shoppers sent back $849.9 billion in merchandise in 2025, and the holiday season squeezes more of that volume into fewer weeks than any other part of the year. That compression is why holiday returns statistics matter more to operations teams than annual totals do. A 17% return rate spread across twelve months is manageable. The same rate packed into January breaks staffing plans and refund timelines in the exact weeks carrier rates sit at their seasonal high.

Two terms frame everything below. National Returns Day is the single busiest day for returned parcels, a label UPS created. The January wave is the longer surge around it, which starts before Christmas and runs into February. This guide covers both: the National Returns Day timeline, the latest return, cost, and fraud numbers, a returns model built for direct-to-consumer brands, and a phase-by-phase checklist for January 2027.

What Is National Returns Day, and When Is National Returns Day 2026?

National Returns Day 2026 fell on Monday, January 5, 2026, the date UPS marked as the peak for returned holiday parcels, and the next one is expected on Monday, January 4, 2027. UPS coined the term for the busiest return day of the year, which for most of its history landed on January 2.

The date moves because shopper behavior moves. January 2 used to win for practical reasons: recipients had lived with their gifts for a week, return windows had been open since December 26, and carrier networks were back at full strength after New Year's Day. Early promotions then pulled the curve forward. In the 2018 season the peak landed on December 19, six days before Christmas, as shoppers sent back items they had bought for themselves during Black Friday deals. Two seasons later, UPS stopped forecasting one day and described a full returns week instead, because wider drop-off options spread the volume across five days.

How the National Returns Day peak has moved

The practical lesson is that the peak week matters more than the peak day. A Monday peak usually means weekend drop-offs reach your dock in one block, so a receiving team staffed for an even spread from January 2 to January 8 will run short on the day the trucks actually unload.

Holiday Returns Statistics 2026: How Many Holiday Purchases Are Returned?

Retailers expect 17% of holiday sales to be returned, a rate the National Retail Federation describes as consistent with previous years. Online orders run higher, with 19.3% of online sales returned in 2025, because shoppers who cannot touch or try a product before buying settle that question after delivery.

• U.S. retailers estimated 2025 returns at $849.9 billion, or 15.8% of annual sales, down from $890 billion and 16.9% in 2024.

• A transaction-level count of 2025 U.S. returns came in lower, at $706 billion, because it measures what moved through registers instead of what large retailers expected.

• Online holiday spending in the U.S. reached $257.8 billion between November 1 and December 31, 2025, while online returns in that same window slipped 1.2% year over year.

• Shoppers worldwide returned 12.2% of online orders between January 1 and January 14, 2026, a 3% increase on the prior year.

• Free returns weighed on the purchase decision for 82% of U.S. consumers surveyed in summer 2025, up from 76% a year earlier.

• A poor return experience makes 71% of consumers less likely to shop with that retailer again, up from 67% in 2024.

The $144 billion gap between the two national totals deserves a line in any board deck, since one figure reflects survey expectations and the other reflects transactions. Neither should replace your own prior-year return rate by SKU, though, because category mix moves your number more than any national average can.

When Do Holiday Returns Peak? The Ecommerce Returns January Wave Explained

Holiday returns peak in the first full week of January, but the wave starts earlier than most plans assume. 82% of shoppers return unwanted gifts within one month of receiving them, and one in every seven U.S. holiday-season online returns in 2025 happened between December 26 and December 31.

The pre-Christmas wave

Return rates now climb in December, before most gifts are unwrapped. In the 2025 season the largest year-over-year jump in return rates came in December, and the likeliest explanation is that shoppers were clearing unwanted purchases off their credit card statements before month end. Self-purchases from Black Friday and Cyber Week are the likely driver, since a shopper who ordered three sizes in late November has no reason to wait for Christmas to send two back. The result is that receiving docks start filling during the same weeks they are pushing out the heaviest outbound volume of the year.

The post-Christmas January wave

The bigger surge belongs to gift recipients. Online returns rose 4.7% year over year in the six days after Christmas 2025, and volume kept building into the new year. Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce, summed it up: "January is still the month that sees the largest number of returns overall." Individual timing varies widely, which gives the wave its long tail.

Holiday return timing, 2025 to 2026 season

Staff for three pressure points instead of one: the week before Christmas, the week after it, and the first full week of January. Then keep a smaller crew through early February, because the 27% of shoppers who wait three weeks or longer are still arriving when most temporary hires roll off.

How Much Does a Holiday Return Cost a Retailer?

Processing a return costs a retailer about 30% of the item's value, which added up to roughly $211 billion across U.S. retail in 2025. That figure covers far more than postage, since inbound handling, inspection, repackaging, and the markdown on goods that can no longer sell at full price all sit inside it.

Worked example: return costs on $1 million in holiday online sales (ClickPost illustration)

That $85,306 equals 8.5% of the season's online revenue, and January makes it worse. USPS holiday pricing on Priority Mail, Ground Advantage, and Parcel Select runs from October 4, 2026, to January 17, 2027, so most of the return wave ships back at peak rates.

• Among retailers that charge for returns, 40% point to rising processing costs and another 40% point to higher carrier shipping costs.

• Economic uncertainty and tariff risk were the reason cited by 33% of those retailers in 2025.

• To absorb holiday volume, 49% of retailers planned to lean harder on third-party logistics partners and 43% planned to hire seasonal returns staff.

Michael Osborne, CEO of Appriss Retail, put the stakes bluntly: "Every dollar lost to returns is a dollar straight off the bottom line."

Most brands undercount this cost because the carrier invoice is the only line labeled "returns." Labor sits in warehouse payroll, markdowns sit in merchandising, and support tickets sit with CX, so finance rarely sees the full 30% in one place until someone rebuilds it per unit.

Which Holiday Gift Categories Get Returned the Most?

Clothing is the most returned holiday gift category, accounting for 65% of holiday returns in a November 2025 survey of 2,013 U.S. consumers. Fit drives that share: wrong size is the top return reason at 44%, ahead of damaged goods at 31% and items that did not match their description at 11%.

Where the 2026 holiday return exposure sits

The 2026 spend forecasts show why apparel dominates January even though electronics sells more: a category that generates two-thirds of gift returns on less revenue than electronics is where your dock space goes. No national body publishes holiday return rates by category, and the ranges that circulate online rarely trace back to a primary source, so your own SKU history remains the only benchmark worth planning against.

Holiday Return Fraud Statistics: How Much of the Wave Is Fraud?

Fraudulent and abusive returns made up 12% of all returns filed between January 1 and January 26, 2026, compared with a 9% fraud rate retailers reported for 2025 as a whole. The holiday spike happens because longer windows, gift receipts, and sheer volume make each return harder to verify before the refund goes out.

• Preventable fraud and abuse cost U.S. retailers $100 billion in 2025, or 14.2% of all returned merchandise, with abuse at $86 billion outweighing outright fraud at $14 billion.

• Potentially fraudulent returns climbed to 18.3% of January 2026 returns on one fraud-prevention network, up from 15.8% over the comparable December period.

• "Significantly not as described" claims made up 63% of January 2026 returns, against 48% of all returns across 2025.

• Abusive returns citing "damaged items" rose 158% in 2025 compared with 2024.

• Among retailers that track fraud, 71% saw more overstated return quantities in 2025, 65% saw more empty-box returns, and 64% saw more decoy or counterfeit returns.

• AI now sits in the fraud stack of 85% of retailers surveyed in 2025.

Abuse is the bigger problem precisely because it looks like normal behavior. A shopper who brackets three sizes or wears a dress once rarely thinks of it as fraud, so tightening the window for everyone punishes loyal customers along with the few who exploit the policy. Segment-level eligibility rules work better. ClickPost, for example, applies return and exchange eligibility rules based on the customer tags a brand already sets in its store backend, so high-return accounts can get a narrower path while everyone else keeps the generous one.

Why Do DTC Brands Pay More for Holiday Returns?

Direct-to-consumer brands pay more per holiday return because every parcel travels back to one warehouse or 3PL node, with no store network to absorb volume or resell items locally. National benchmarks also understate their exposure, since the main retailer survey covers merchants with more than $500 million in annual revenue.

• Stores handle 81% of all U.S. returns, including online orders returned at a counter, so an omnichannel retailer can restock an item the same afternoon while a DTC brand waits days for it to cross the country.

• A single receiving node turns January volume into a queue, and that queue stretches refund times just as 76% of consumers say they prefer return options that deliver an instant refund or exchange.

• Survey averages from $500 million retailers blend in-store returns, so a $10 million apparel brand gets a truer benchmark from its own prior-season rate by SKU.

• A DTC brand owns every step of the return, which means it controls the portal where an exchange or store credit can be offered before a refund.

What exchange conversion is worth on $1 million in holiday online sales (ClickPost illustration)

What Is the Mobile Returns Gap, and Why Does It Matter?

Mobile drove 56.4% of U.S. online holiday spend in the 2025 season but only 38.8% of returns, a gap of 17.6 percentage points. Shoppers buy on their phones and then switch to a desktop to send items back, which suggests the mobile return flow is harder to finish than the checkout that started the order.

• Mobile is forecast to reach 57.4% of 2026 online holiday spend, so the gap widens further if return flows stay desktop-first.

• 69% of U.S. consumers have kept an item they wanted to return because the process felt like too much hassle.

• Nearly half of shoppers, 48%, have avoided returning a gift altogether for fear of offending the person who gave it.

A kept item can look like a win because the brand avoids the return cost. The bill arrives later, since a customer who holds onto something unwanted out of frustration is the same customer the 71% figure warns about. Track mobile return initiation rate next to CSAT, and cut the steps between "start a return" and a usable label or QR code on a phone screen.

What Do the 2026 Forecasts Say About the Next Return Wave?

NRF projects U.S. holiday retail sales of $1.013 trillion for November and December 2026, up 4.2%. If the 17% holiday return rate holds, that implies roughly $172 billion in returned merchandise, most of it arriving between December 26, 2026, and the end of January 2027.

2026 holiday projections and the returns they imply

Both sets of online and total projections will move with December demand. The direction is clear either way. Even with a flat return rate, a bigger holiday season means a bigger January, and that January now lands inside a carrier pricing window that runs until mid-month.

Holiday Returns Trends to Watch Heading Into 2027

AI-assisted shoppers may return less

69% of consumers who use AI tools for online shopping say they are less likely to return what they bought, and AI-referred traffic to U.S. retail sites is forecast to rise 130% this season. Better-researched purchases are the cheapest form of return prevention, so product data that AI assistants can read accurately now pays off in January as well as at checkout.

Organized networks are moving into returns fraud

Nearly one in five fraudulent orders in early 2026 came from organized networks, which coordinate tactics and recruit through social media. Rings repeat the same playbook across many retailers, so per-store rules catch less than shared, cross-channel signals do.

Damage claims are becoming the fraud tactic of choice

"Item not as described" claims rose 49% in the first four months of 2026, with AI-edited photos of damaged goods emerging as a common tactic. Photo-based refund approvals were built for honest shoppers, which is exactly why they now need a second check during the January rush.

Box-free drop-off is becoming the default

79% of Americans now live within five miles of a box-free, label-free return drop-off point, after UPS expanded that network to 10,000 U.S. locations in April 2026. Consolidated drop-offs ship returns back in bulk, which lowers per-parcel cost, and the item is scanned at the counter, which narrows the opening for empty-box fraud.

January Readiness Checklist for Ecommerce Operations Teams

Preparing for the January returns wave takes four phases, starting before the first holiday order ships. The checklist below sequences forecasting, carrier capacity, fraud rules, staffing, and post-season analysis so that each decision is made while it is still cheap to change.

Holiday Returns Statistics at a Glance

Holiday Returns Statistics: Frequently Asked Questions

What percentage of holiday purchases are returned?

17% of holiday sales are expected to be returned, based on a 2025 survey of large U.S. retailers. Online purchases run higher, with 19.3% of online sales returned across 2025, because shoppers settle fit and quality questions after delivery instead of in a fitting room or store aisle.

When is National Returns Day 2026?

January 5, 2026, a Monday, was the most recent National Returns Day, the date UPS marked as the peak for returned holiday parcels. The next one is expected on Monday, January 4, 2027, the first Monday after New Year's Day, with heavy return volume continuing through the rest of that week.

How much does a holiday return cost a retailer?

30% of an item's value is the average cost to process a return, which totaled about $211 billion across U.S. retail in 2025. On a $60 sweater, that is $18 in shipping, handling, inspection, repackaging, and markdown before any fraud loss, which is why returns erode margin faster than their volume suggests.

What is the most returned holiday gift category?

65% of holiday returns are clothing, according to a November 2025 survey of 2,013 U.S. consumers. Wrong size is the leading return reason at 44%, so apparel and footwear brands carry the heaviest January load, while electronics, home goods, and beauty products account for much smaller shares of returned gifts.

What percentage of holiday returns are fraudulent?

12% of returns filed between January 1 and January 26, 2026, were flagged as fraudulent or abusive, compared with the 9% fraud rate retailers reported for all of 2025. Abuse such as wardrobing and bracketing outweighs outright fraud by about six to one in dollar terms, which makes it harder to spot.

How long do customers wait before returning a holiday gift?

82% of shoppers return unwanted holiday gifts within one month of receiving them. Half return within a week, 23% wait two to three weeks, and 27% hold on for three weeks or longer, which is why return volume stays elevated well past the first week of January and into early February.

Is it cheaper to process returns in-store or by mail?

81% of U.S. returns already go back through stores, largely because an in-store return skips the inbound parcel and puts the item straight back on the shelf. No national study isolates per-unit cost by channel, so compare your own carrier, labor, and resale data. Brands without stores can use carrier drop-off networks that consolidate parcels.

How do I prepare my ecommerce store for the January returns wave?

17% of holiday sales coming back means planning has to start before the first gift ships. Forecast return volume from your prior-year rate, lock carrier and 3PL capacity before December, publish your holiday return window at checkout, staff through the first full week of January, and offer exchanges before refunds in your portal.