US Ecommerce Statistics 2026: Market Size & Growth Trends

TL;DR: US ecommerce statistics for 2026

US retail ecommerce reached $340.2 billion in Q2 2026, equal to 17.1% of all US retail sales and 12.2% more than a year earlier. At that pace, full-year 2026 online sales should land near $1.35 trillion on the Census Bureau's basis, with ecommerce growing almost twice as fast as retail overall.

• US shoppers spent $340.2 billion online with retailers in Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted

• Online sales made up 17.1% of total US retail in Q2 2026, up from 16.3% a year earlier

• Amazon and Walmart together are forecast to capture 51.0% of US retail ecommerce in 2026

• AI-referred shoppers converted 60% better than other visitors to US retail sites in July 2026

• Shoppers were expected to send back 19.3% of US online purchases in 2025

How Big Is the US Ecommerce Market in 2026?

US retail ecommerce sales reached $340.2 billion in Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted, according to the Census Bureau's Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales report released August 18, 2026. Sales rose 3.8% from Q1 and 12.2% from Q2 2025, which, by our estimate puts the full year on pace for roughly $1.35 trillion.

• Total US retail sales grew 6.7% year over year to $1,986.5 billion in Q2 2026, so online sales grew about 1.8 times as fast as retail as a whole.

• Full-year 2025 US retail ecommerce came to roughly $1.23 trillion on an unadjusted basis, which was 16.4% of all retail sales that year.

• Unadjusted ecommerce sales for the first half of 2026 ran about 11% ahead of the first half of 2025, already outpacing eMarketer's base-case call of 7.9% growth for the full year.

Two cautions before you plug 12.2% into a budget. Census figures are not adjusted for price changes, so part of the jump reflects higher shelf prices rather than more parcels leaving warehouses. The Q2 number is also preliminary, and revised estimates arrive with the Q3 release on November 19, 2026. Plan for low double-digit nominal growth, and forecast units separately so inflation does not flatter your volume plan.

What Percentage of US Retail Sales Are Online in 2026?

Ecommerce accounted for 17.1% of total US retail sales in Q2 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, as the Census Bureau's quarterly e-commerce data shows. The unadjusted share was 16.4%. Either way, roughly 83 cents of every US retail dollar still moves through stores, auto dealers, gas stations, and other offline channels.

• The online share rose 0.8 percentage points in twelve months, from 16.3% in Q2 2025 to 17.1% in Q2 2026.

• On a full-year basis, ecommerce made up 16.4% of US retail sales in 2025, compared with 16.1% in 2024.

• In the UK, internet sales have held at roughly 27% to 28% of retail since mid-2024, based on the ONS internet sales ratio series.

The UK gap says the US still has room to run, and the reasons it lags are structural. US delivery distances are longer, big-box stores are dense, and the Census retail base includes cars and fuel, which few people buy online. Share gains of under one point a year also mean the store is staying, which is exactly why store-fulfilled delivery has become a growth engine for the largest retailers.

Which US Ecommerce Categories Have the Highest Online Penetration?

Computers and consumer electronics lead the major merchandise categories, with roughly 54% to 56% of category sales made online, while grocery remains the least penetrated large category. The spread matters more than the average, because a 17% blended share hides categories where online already wins and others where it barely registers.

Be careful with category figures built from Census store data. The Census Bureau files each sale under the seller's industry, so a sofa sold on a general marketplace counts under nonstore retailers, which is why some reports show furniture stores selling only a few percent online. Our category penetration breakdown covers the category-level view.

How Much of US Ecommerce Do Amazon and Walmart Control?

Amazon and Walmart will capture 51.0% of US retail ecommerce sales in 2026, according to eMarketer's May 2026 forecast. It is the first year their combined share tops half, up from 41.3% in 2019, and it means one of every two online retail dollars in the US now flows through two companies.

• Amazon alone held more than 40% of US retail ecommerce in 2024, in eMarketer's most recent public single-company estimate.

• Walmart's Q2 FY27 results showed U.S. ecommerce sales up 24% in the quarter ended July 31, 2026, with marketplace sales up 52%.

• TikTok Shop is forecast to reach $23.41 billion in US ecommerce sales in 2026, a 48% jump that would make it larger online than Target, Costco, Best Buy, or Kroger, as eMarketer's social commerce FAQ notes.

• Duty-free entry for imports valued at $800 or less ended for all countries on August 29, 2025, under Executive Order 14324, removing the cost edge that cross-border sellers built on low-value parcels.

Concentration cuts both ways. Marketplaces deliver reach no brand can buy elsewhere at that scale, yet they also own the customer relationship and the post-purchase data. The brands protecting margin run both: marketplace listings for discovery, and an owned site where delivery promises, tracking, and returns are theirs to shape.

How Much of US Ecommerce Happens on Mobile?

Mobile devices drove a record 56.4% of US online spending during the 2025 holiday season, according to Adobe's holiday shopping report. Adobe also reports that 2025 was the first full year mobile made up more than half of online spend, which makes the phone the default checkout for most US shoppers.

• Christmas Day 2025 had the highest mobile share of the season at 66.5% of online sales, up from 65% on Christmas Day 2024.

• Thanksgiving Day 2025 reached 61.6% mobile share, the first time that day crossed 60%, as Adobe's Cyber Week release noted.

• On Cyber Monday 2025, 79.4% of buy now, pay later transactions happened on a mobile device.

Mobile checkout is where conversion is won or lost. Baymard Institute's checkout research estimates the average large site could lift conversion 35.26% through better checkout design alone, and on a small screen every extra form field hurts more than it does on desktop. If mobile conversion trails desktop by a wide margin, fix that before buying more traffic.

How Big Is US Social Commerce in 2026?

US social commerce sales are forecast to pass $100 billion in 2026, up from about $87 billion in 2025, based on eMarketer projections reported by Retail Dive. TikTok Shop is the growth engine: it made up nearly 20% of US social commerce in 2025 and is forecast to exceed $30 billion in sales by 2028.

• Half of US social shoppers are projected to make a purchase on TikTok in 2026.

• Social media accounted for 4.6% of US online holiday revenue in 2025, a share that grew 40.3% year over year, per Adobe's 2025 holiday season release.

Social commerce is still small next to a $1.3 trillion market, and impulse categories can see ugly return rates. Its real value is discovery, and a creator video that takes off puts sudden, spiky demand on inventory and carriers, so the fulfillment plan deserves as much attention as the content plan.

How Is AI Changing Ecommerce in the United States?

AI-referred visits to US retail sites converted 60% better than non-AI traffic in July 2026, the eleventh straight month of outperformance, according to Adobe Analytics data reported by Digital Commerce 360. Those shoppers also generated 53% more revenue per visit and stayed on site 59% longer.

AI is changing US ecommerce in four measurable ways:

• Discovery traffic: AI-referral traffic to US retail sites grew 62% year over year in July 2026, and 1,219% since October 2024.

• Conversion flip: AI visitors went from converting 38% worse than other traffic in March 2025, as TechCrunch reported from Adobe data, to 60% better by July 2026.

• Direct sales: eMarketer expects general-purpose AI platforms to drive about $20.9 billion, or 1.5%, of US retail ecommerce in 2026, rising to $144 billion by 2029.

• Readability gaps: Adobe found that 39% of homepage content across an expanded set of US retail sites was not machine-readable as of July 2026.

Our read: treat AI as a high-quality but still small channel. At 1.5% of sales, it does not justify rebuilding your stack. The fixes that help AI assistants read your catalog, though, are the same ones that help human shoppers and search engines: clean product attributes, accurate stock, and real delivery dates. That makes them cheap insurance.

How Big Is US B2B Ecommerce?

US B2B ecommerce grew 13% to $2.93 trillion in 2025, according to Digital Commerce 360's B2B Ecommerce Market Forecast Report. That is more than twice the size of US retail ecommerce, and it grew while total US manufacturing and wholesale distribution sales rose just 0.4% to $15.12 trillion.

• Digital channels therefore carried roughly 19% of all US B2B sales in 2025, based on the two Digital Commerce 360 figures.

• eMarketer forecasts that US B2B ecommerce site sales will surpass $3 trillion by 2028, a narrower measure that counts physical products ordered through websites and portals and excludes EDI.

Total B2B sales grew just 1.0% in 2024 and 0.4% in 2025, so digital gains are share taken inside a flat market. Distributors still routing reorders through email and phone are handing that volume to competitors with self-service portals. B2B delivery also carries higher stakes, because a late pallet can stop a production line, which raises the value of shipment visibility and fast proof of delivery.

What Do Returns and Checkout Friction Cost US Ecommerce?

US shoppers were expected to return 19.3% of online purchases in 2025, compared with 15.8% of all retail sales, according to NRF's 2025 retail returns report. Total US returns were projected at $849.9 billion, and retailers classified 9% of all returns as fraudulent.

Most teams budget returns as a cost of doing business, yet 82% of shoppers weigh free returns before they buy, so the policy also works as an acquisition lever. The practical moves are converting refunds into exchanges, tightening fit information, and tagging serial returners before the fraud slice compounds.

US Ecommerce Forecast: Projections for 2026 to 2031

Mordor Intelligence projects the US ecommerce market will grow from $1.38 trillion in 2026 to $2.28 trillion by 2031, a 10.53% compound annual growth rate, in its US ecommerce market report. Its scope is wider than the Census series, so the growth rate is the more useful planning input.

The forecasts agree on direction and disagree on speed. First-half 2026 data makes the 7.9% call look low in nominal terms, though tariff-driven price increases weaken nominal growth as a signal. We would plan around 9% to 11% nominal growth and revisit after the November Census release.

How Much Will US Shoppers Spend Online This Holiday Season?

US shoppers are forecast to spend a record $275.1 billion online between November 1 and December 31, 2026, up 6.7% from 2025, according to Adobe's 2026 holiday forecast. Cyber Monday remains the biggest single day at a projected $15.1 billion, while Black Friday is expected to grow faster on earlier discounts.

• Adobe expects $95.8 billion in US online spending in October 2026, up 8%, as October deal events pull demand ahead of the official season.

• Electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9%) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7%) are forecast to stay the largest holiday categories, per the full forecast release.

• Grocery is forecast to grow 10.3% to $26.1 billion online, outpacing both electronics and apparel, while furniture grows 7.3% to $33.4 billion.

• Adobe expects discounts of up to 30% off listed prices during Cyber Week 2026.

Peak season now starts in October, so carrier capacity, cutoff dates, and warehouse staffing need to be locked earlier than many teams plan for. Grocery's 10.3% growth also stands out: perishable orders punish late deliveries far harder than a delayed sweater, so delivery accuracy becomes the deciding factor in that category's peak.

US Ecommerce Trends 2026: What Is Shifting Underneath the Numbers

Cross-border sellers lost their duty-free lane

Imports valued at $800 or less lost duty-free entry into the US on August 29, 2025, when de minimis treatment was suspended for all countries. Ultra-low-price cross-border marketplaces built their US pricing on that exemption, so duties now land on parcels that once cleared free. Brands holding inventory in US warehouses gain, because a domestic shipment now competes on price and arrives days sooner.

AI assistants are reading your catalog, imperfectly

Adobe found that 39% of homepage content across a broad set of US retail sites was not machine-readable in July 2026. Readability scores ranged from 76% for apparel retailers down to 59% for grocery. When an assistant cannot parse price, stock, or delivery timing, it recommends someone else, which puts product data quality on the commercial agenda.

Buy now, pay later became a holiday staple

Buy now, pay later drove $20.0 billion of US online holiday spending in 2025, up 9.8% year over year, according to Adobe. Installment plans lift basket size, especially on mobile, but returns on split-payment orders need fast refund flows, or the convenience that won the sale turns into a support ticket.

The returns policy now shapes the purchase decision

82% of US consumers say free returns are an important consideration when shopping online, per NRF. That turns the returns page into pre-purchase marketing. Generous policies win the order but raise volume, so the brands handling this well pair free returns with exchange-first flows and better fit guidance.

Key Takeaways for Ecommerce Leaders in 2026

• Plan for low double-digit nominal growth, and forecast units separately. Census ecommerce growth hit 12.2% in Q2 2026 without any price adjustment.

• Fix mobile checkout before buying more traffic. Mobile drove 56.4% of 2025 holiday spend, and better checkout design can lift conversion 35.26%.

• Make your catalog machine-readable. AI-referred visits convert 60% better, yet 39% of retail homepage content still cannot be read by AI systems.

• Run marketplaces and an owned channel together. Amazon and Walmart hold 51.0% of US retail ecommerce, so reach lives there while customer data lives on your site.

• Turn refunds into exchanges. With 19.3% of online sales returned, every exchange keeps revenue inside the business.

• Choose one market-size source and stick with it. Use Census data for share and growth, and label every modeled forecast as a projection.

US eCommerce Statistics 2026: At a Glance

Conclusion: Use These Numbers as a Benchmark System 

The most useful way to read US ecommerce statistics is as a connected benchmark system. A market size figure says little until your own conversion rate sits beside it, and a return rate says little until you know what each return costs and how many become exchanges. Use the Census series as your baseline, label forecasts as forecasts, and compare against your category instead of the blended average.

Our verdict

US ecommerce is accelerating again, but the winners in 2026 will be decided after checkout: delivery accuracy, returns that turn into exchanges, and product data that AI assistants can read. Growth will reach almost everyone; margin will not.

Frequently Asked Questions About US Ecommerce Statistics

How big is the US ecommerce market in 2026?

$340.2 billion in Q2 2026 alone, based on Census Bureau data, which puts full-year 2026 US retail ecommerce on pace for roughly $1.35 trillion. Broader modeled estimates run higher, with Mordor Intelligence sizing the 2026 market at $1.38 trillion, because they count more than retail sales by employer firms.

What percentage of US retail sales are online in 2026?

17.1% of US retail sales happened online in Q2 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 16.3% a year earlier, while the unadjusted share was 16.4%. The UK runs at roughly 27% to 28%, which suggests the US still has room to grow, especially in categories where online penetration remains low.

How fast is US ecommerce growing?

12.2% year over year in Q2 2026, up from 10.1% in Q1 2026 and 5.0% in Q2 2025. Online sales grew almost twice as fast as total US retail, which rose 6.7%. Because Census figures are not adjusted for prices, part of that acceleration reflects higher prices rather than more orders.

What is the largest ecommerce category in the US?

Computers and consumer electronics lead US online sales among major merchandise categories, with more than half of category sales made online. Apparel ranks close behind in online dollars, while grocery has the lowest penetration of the large categories because perishables and last-mile costs make online orders harder to fulfill profitably.

How much of US ecommerce does Amazon control?

More than 40% of US retail ecommerce went through Amazon in 2024, in eMarketer's latest public single-company estimate. Together with Walmart, the two are forecast to hold 51.0% in 2026, up from 41.3% in 2019, which makes marketplace presence close to mandatory for brands chasing reach.

What is the average ecommerce conversion rate in the US?

Around 1.5% to 2% of sessions convert on a typical US ecommerce site, based on broad benchmark panels, though rates swing widely by category, device, and traffic source. The bigger lever is checkout: Baymard Institute estimates large sites could raise conversion 35.26% by fixing documented checkout usability problems.

How important is mobile commerce in 2026?

56.4% of US online holiday spending in 2025 came from mobile devices, a record, and Christmas Day reached 66.5%. Adobe reports 2025 was the first full year mobile topped half of online spend, so mobile checkout speed and clarity now decide conversion for most brands more than any desktop improvement.

How is AI changing ecommerce in the United States?

60% higher conversion is the headline: AI-referred visitors to US retail sites converted that much better than other traffic in July 2026, based on Adobe data. AI referral traffic grew 62% year over year, eMarketer expects about $20.9 billion in 2026 sales through AI platforms, and retailers are rewriting product data so assistants can read it.