Black Friday & Cyber Monday Statistics 2026: Sales & Trends

TL;DR Summary

Black Friday is the Friday after Thanksgiving. In 2026, it falls on November 27. It began as a major day for in-store deals. Today it is considered one of the busiest days for online shopping in the US.

Cyber Monday comes three days later, on November 30. It began as a day for online deals. According to Adobe Analytics, it is now the single biggest online shopping day of the year. People often group the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday as Cyber Week.

This guide collects the Black Friday statistics that matter for 2026. You will see 2025 results and 2026 forecasts side by side. You will learn how shoppers split between stores, phones, and AI tools. We also cover discounts, parcel volumes, delivery performance, and returns. Every figure links to its source.

Black Friday statistics at a glance: 2025 results vs. 2026 forecasts

This table compares last year's results with the latest 2026 forecasts. Adobe tracks US online sales only. NRF covers stores and online together.

How much do Americans spend on Black Friday?

US shoppers spent $11.8 billion online on Black Friday 2025. That was a record, up 9.1% from 2024, according to Adobe's Cyber Week recap. Spending in stores and online grew 4.1%, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. The table shows how the day has grown since 2019.

Source: Adobe Analytics, as first reported each year. Adobe sometimes revises older totals. 2026 figures are forecasts.

The numbers tell a simple story. Sales jumped 21.6% in 2020, when many stores closed. They dipped 1.3% in 2021, the only decline in the series. Adobe linked that dip to deals that started in October. Growth came back in 2022. In 2024 and 2025, Black Friday grew faster than Cyber Monday. Adobe credits earlier and steeper discounts.

How did online and in-store shopping compare on Black Friday 2025?

Online sales grew 10.4% on Black Friday 2025. In-store sales grew 1.7%, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. NRF counted 85.7 million online shoppers and 80.3 million in-store shoppers that day. Many people did both. We found no source that gives online's share of Black Friday sales.

Fewer people walked into stores. NRF's survey found Black Friday was still the busiest in-store day of the weekend. Across the whole season, stores do most of the selling. Bain expects them to bring in about 70% of November and December retail sales. The Saturday after Black Friday showed how much weather can matter. Record snow hit Chicago that day, and Sensormatic recorded a 35.7% drop in Midwest store traffic.

Is Cyber Monday bigger than Black Friday?

It depends on what you measure. By online revenue, Cyber Monday is bigger. It brought in $14.25 billion in US online sales in 2025, according to Adobe. That was over $2 billion more than Black Friday. By shopper count, Black Friday wins. NRF counted 75.9 million online shoppers on Cyber Monday. Black Friday drew more, both online and in stores.

• Shoppers spent $16 million a minute during the 8 pm to 10 pm peak on Cyber Monday 2025.

• Electronics, apparel, and furniture accounted for 57% of online spending on Cyber Monday.

• Electronics discounts peaked at 31% off on Cyber Monday 2025. Toys hit 28% and apparel 25%.

• Salesforce put US Cyber Monday online sales at $13.6 billion, up 6%. It uses its own merchant data, so its totals differ from Adobe's.

• Salesforce's US Cyber Week figure was $79.6 billion. It covers seven days, from November 25 to December 1. Adobe's five-day total was $44.2 billion.

The gap is closing. Vivek Pandya of Adobe Digital Insights put it plainly in Adobe's Cyber Monday release: "Black Friday now challenges the dominance of Cyber Monday." Under Adobe's 2026 forecast, Black Friday reaches about 85% of Cyber Monday's online sales. In 2025, it was about 83%. Plan Friday's order load as close to Monday's rather than as a warm-up.

How much BFCM spending happens on mobile and buy now, pay later?

Phones drove 57.5% of Cyber Monday 2025 online sales, or $8.2 billion, according to Adobe. Across the full season, mobile accounted for 56.4% of sales. Buy now, pay later (BNPL) also hit a milestone. It passed $1 billion in a single day for the first time on Cyber Monday 2025.

• Mobile accounted for 41.4% of Cyber Monday online sales in 2020. It has gained about 16 points in five years.

• Mobile passed 60% of Thanksgiving online sales for the first time in 2025, at 61.6%.

• 79.4% of Cyber Monday BNPL purchases happened on a phone.

• BNPL drove $20 billion in online spend during the 2025 season, up 9.8%.

• Adobe forecasts $21.3 billion in BNPL spend for 2026. That includes $807 million on Black Friday.

On the biggest shopping days, most online orders now come from a phone. Thanksgiving leads the way. Adobe expects phones to drive 63% of Thanksgiving online sales in 2026, a record. A checkout that works on desktop but stumbles on a small screen will lose buyers at the last step. Test three things on mobile before the rush: BNPL options, address autofill, and delivery estimates.

How much does AI influence Black Friday shopping?

Clicks from AI tools to US retail sites rose 670% on Cyber Monday 2025, according to Adobe. That number counts visits. Salesforce measures something else. It counts orders where AI played a part, including product recommendations and service chat. Salesforce put that at 20% of global Cyber Week orders.

• AI-referred traffic grew 693% over the full November and December 2025 season. Adobe notes the user base is still small.

• AI-referred visitors converted 31% more often than other visitors over the season. On Black Friday, the gap was 38%.

• AI and agents influenced $67 billion in global Cyber Week sales.

• Adobe expects AI-referred traffic to grow 130% in 2026. The biggest jump is forecast for Thanksgiving, at 159%.

• 29% of US consumers plan to use AI for holiday shopping in 2026, up from 22%. Only 4% expect to buy gifts through an AI tool.

Taken together, AI looks like a research step for now. Visitors from AI tools convert better, which suggests they arrive closer to a decision. It does not prove the AI caused the sale. Retailers' practical job is simple. Keep product pages, stock levels, and delivery dates accurate for these shoppers.

How many people shop Black Friday weekend, and what do they buy?

A record 202.9 million Americans shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday 2025. That was up from 197 million in 2024, according to NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Shoppers who made a holiday purchase spent an average of $337.86. That is the highest figure since 2019.

• 134.9 million people shopped online over the five days, up 9%. In-store shoppers numbered 129.5 million, up 3%.

• The Sunday after Thanksgiving drew a record 32.6 million in-store shoppers, up 27%.

• 84% of consumers had started holiday shopping by Thanksgiving weekend.

• Shoppers plan to spend $708 on gifts in 2026, down 2%. Millennials plan to cut 10% and Gen Z 9%.

Sources: Adobe 2025 season recap for 2025 peaks. Adobe 2026 forecast for 2026 peaks and best days. Discounts are off the listed price.

Adobe expects 2026 discounts to match or fall slightly below last season's peaks. Appliances and apparel show the biggest drops. Growth is expected to come from spending spread over more days and from everyday essentials. Deeper markdowns are not forecast.

How does Black Friday affect shipping and delivery?

US carriers, Amazon, Walmart and regional fleets moved more than 568 million parcels in the first week of December 2025. That was about 30% above off-peak volume, according to ShipMatrix data reported by FreightWaves. ShipMatrix calls that week Cyber Week. On-time rates held up. UPS hit 98.9%, FedEx 98.3% and USPS 97.2%.

Peak-week volume and on-time benchmarks

• The same week in 2024 saw about 532 million parcels. So 2025 volume was roughly 7% higher.

• All three carriers also cleared 97% on time in that week of 2024.

• ShipMatrix counts express parcels as on time if they arrive by the end of the promised day. Ground parcels get an extra day. Weather- or shipper-caused delays are excluded.

• Full-month December scores were lower: UPS 97.2%, FedEx Express 95.3% and USPS 94.1%. Carriers set different delivery promises at peak, so these scores are not directly comparable.

• ShipMatrix warned that "orders placed after December 17 will require premium shipping" to arrive by Christmas 2025.

• In Europe, nShift's data shows Black Week 2025 peaked at 1.74 times a normal early-November week.

Returns and delivery expectations

• Retailers expected 17% of 2025 holiday sales to be returned.

• Retailers expected 19.3% of 2025 online sales to be returned. Across all retail, the figure was 15.8%.

• 82% of shoppers say free returns matter when they buy online. 76% prefer a return option with an instant refund or exchange.

• Online returns fell 1.2% over the 2025 holiday season. One in seven returns came between December 26 and 31.

• Among shoppers who left a cart for reasons other than browsing, 20% blamed slow delivery. 13% disliked the returns policy.

Carriers hit their on-time targets in the first week of December in both 2024 and 2025, according to ShipMatrix. So the weak spots are more likely to sit with the brand. The first is the delivery date shown at checkout. If it slips, shoppers notice. The second is returns. A December return is easier to keep as revenue when shoppers can swap instead of asking for a refund. ClickPost’s US platform covers both. It offers branded tracking pages with email and SMS updates. Its exchange-first returns flow offers a swap or store credit before a refund.

What are Black Friday cart abandonment and conversion benchmarks?

The average documented cart abandonment rate is 70.22%. That figure comes from Baymard Institute's review of 50 studies. We found no primary source for a US Black Friday 2025 rate. The 76.63% and 80.25% figures often quoted online are usually credited to SaleCycle data from 2021.

• 42% of US online shoppers have left a cart because they were browsing.

• Other reasons include extra costs such as shipping and tax. 18% left because they had to create an account.

• Baymard estimates better checkout design could lift conversion by 35.26% for large online stores.

Much of this abandonment comes from price comparison. No checkout fix will stop that. Retailers can control surprise costs and slow delivery. Show the shipping fee early. Promise a delivery date the carrier can meet. Our cart abandonment rate guide breaks down benchmarks by device and industry.

What do research firms forecast for Black Friday and the 2026 holiday season?

Adobe forecasts $12.9 billion in US online sales on Black Friday 2026 and $15.1 billion on Cyber Monday. It expects $275.1 billion online for the full season. NRF projects $1.013 trillion in November and December retail sales, up 4.2%. All figures in the table are forecasts.

These totals differ because each firm measures something different. Adobe counts online sales only. That is why its $275.1 billion is much smaller than NRF's $1.013 trillion for all channels. Deloitte runs through January, so its total is larger still. Mastercard stops on Christmas Eve. Bain and NRF both cover November and December. Their growth forecasts sit 0.3 points apart. Bain and Mastercard both expect higher prices to drive about half or more of the growth.

Black Friday trends to watch in 2026

October now carries part of the holiday demand. Consumers spent 

$9.86 billion online during Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days on October 6 and 7. That was up 8.5% from last year, based on Adobe data reported by Retail Dive. Adobe expects October to reach $95.8 billion online. The full-month result was not out at the time of writing. Either way, peak demand no longer waits for Thanksgiving. Carriers should lock in pickups and warehouse staffing well before that week.

Shoppers are using deals to stock up on essentials

Adobe forecasts a 150% jump in online sales of personal hygiene products between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday 2026, measured against an average September day. Clothing basics could rise 210% and baby products 113%. Shoppers seem to be using the deals to restock everyday items. For brands that sell these products, reorder reminders and reliable stock levels may earn as much as the headline promotions.

AI is becoming a starting point for some shoppers

24% of online shoppers plan to begin their 2026 holiday shopping on AI platforms such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude. That is up from 17% last year, according to Bain. Few of them complete purchases there. PwC found only 4% of consumers expect to buy gifts through an AI tool. Most still plan to buy in stores (60%) or on brand and retailer websites (38%).

Social and affiliate channels are gaining revenue share

Adobe forecasts 17% growth in social media's share of 2026 holiday online revenue. Affiliates and partners should gain 12%. Paid search should gain just 4%. Social is starting from a small base. Its share of 2025 holiday online revenue was 4.6%, according to Adobe. Even so, the direction points toward creators and cashback partners.

Conclusion

Black Friday 2026 should set another online record. Cyber Monday should stay on top, but the gap keeps shrinking. Two quieter shifts sit behind the headline numbers. Holiday spending now starts in October. More shoppers also arrive from AI assistants, though very few buy inside them.

For operations teams, the lesson is timing. Carriers held up well in early December 2025. Returns are the longer tail. Retailers expected about 17% of holiday sales to come back. Set carrier commitments and delivery promises before November. Treat post-holiday returns as part of the same season. For the wider seasonal picture, see our US holiday retail sales breakdown.

FAQs for Black Friday statistics

How much money did people spend on Black Friday in the US?

According to Adobe, people spent $11.8 billion on Black Friday 2025 online in the US. That was a record. Including stores, total Black Friday retail sales rose 4.1%. Online sales grew 10.4%, and in-store sales grew 1.7%, based on Mastercard SpendingPulse.

Is Black Friday bigger than Cyber Monday in 2026?

Not by online sales. Adobe forecasts that Cyber Monday 2026 will stay ahead. Black Friday is growing faster, though, at a projected 9.2% against 6.2% for Cyber Monday. By shopper count, Black Friday is already bigger. More people shopped on Black Friday 2025 than on Cyber Monday, both online and in stores.

How many people shopped on Black Friday 2025?

According to NRF, 85.7 million Americans shopped online and 80.3 million shopped in stores on Black Friday 2025. Many did both. It was the busiest day of the holiday weekend for both channels. Shopper counts do not equal sales share. Bain expects stores to bring in about 70% of 2026 holiday sales.

What are the biggest Black Friday product categories?

According to Adobe, $3.7 billion of Cyber Monday 2025 online spend went to electronics. Apparel came next at $2.6 billion, then furniture at $1.8 billion. For the full 2026 season, Adobe forecasts electronics at $63.3 billion online and apparel at $51.3 billion. Grocery and toys are growing fastest.

How much do retailers discount on Black Friday?

Adobe forecasts a peak of 30% off the listed price for electronics in 2026. That is slightly below the 2025 peak. Toys should peak at 29%. TVs, computers, and apparel should reach 23%. Adobe expects the best deals on TVs, toys, and apparel to land on Black Friday. Appliances and furniture should also peak that day.

How does Black Friday affect shipping and delivery times?

UPS, FedEx, and USPS posted an on-time rate of 97% or better in the first week of December 2025. That held even as volume rose well above normal, according to ShipMatrix data. Risk rises later in the month. ShipMatrix advised that orders placed after December 17 would need premium shipping to arrive by Christmas.

What is the biggest online shopping day of the year?

Cyber Monday is the biggest online shopping day in the US. Its 2025 total of $14.25 billion was the highest single day on record, according to Adobe. Adobe expects Cyber Monday 2026, on November 30, to set a new record. Black Friday should come second.