Holiday Retail Sales in the US: What Brands Need to Know in 2026

TL/DR summary

The U.S. holiday retail curve rose from ~$568B (2012) to $976.1 Bn (2024). The National Retail Federation projects $1.01–$1.02T in 2025, assuming steady jobs and mindful pricing.

Key pointers:

• The holiday shopping season has a proven upward slope; retail holiday sales still remain fundamentally strong.

• Retailers should support October buying events to pull demand forward and meet consumer demand in the peak shopping season.

• Watch consumer prices, trade uncertainty, and any federal government shutdown that could delay federal spending and reduce private sector income.

• Use NRF economic modeling and store‑level data to monitor consumer spending patterns, tune buys, and protect margin.

Plan around the rhythm of the holiday period, keep value clear as shoppers seek savings, and align capacity so holiday retail sales translate into healthy cash flow for the retail industry.

Introduction

Holiday retail is a stress test for the retail sector. When we talk about holiday retail sales in the us, we mean November–December “core retail” as tracked by the National Retail Federation. Over 2012–2024, holiday sales climbed from $568 billion to $976.1 billion, supported by rising wages, promotional sophistication, and a current labour market that (despite shocks)  kept consumer demand flowing.

Looking to 2025, the US Retail Industry Association (NRF) expects another leg up past the trillion‑dollar mark. For leaders planning inventory, media, and staffing, the ability to monitor consumer spending patterns and align with the peak shopping season is now a competitive edge.

Holiday retail sales: 2012–2024 pattern and 2025 outlook

The NRF defines the holiday period as Nov 1–Dec 31 and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail. The series shows steady sales growth with two outsized years during the pandemic recovery and a slower pace since.

NRF actuals (USD billions) and annual change

Note: This dual-axis chart clearly displays the total sales (line plot) and the annual percentage change (column bars), highlighting the consistent growth trend and the dramatic pandemic-era surge.

A decade of holiday retail: From steady climb to pandemic surge

The history of holiday retail spending in the U.S. reveals a market defined by persistent yet generally modest growth, with sales climbing steadily from $567.6 billion in 2012 to the trillion-dollar mark in 2024.

For much of the 2010s, annual expansion hovered in the 2.5% to 5% range, indicating a healthy but predictable consumer climate. This stable trend was dramatically interrupted in 2020 and 2021, which stand out as anomaly years fueled by unique economic factors. The 9% growth in 2020 was spurred by government stimulus and a massive shift to online shopping, while the 12.4% surge in 2021 reflected an enormous reopening demand as consumers spent accumulated savings.

Since that extraordinary peak, the market has settled back into a normalized rhythm, with the 4.7% growth in 2022 and the projected 4.3% in 2024 reflecting a return to pre-pandemic paces, albeit with significantly higher nominal sales figures, nearing $1 trillion. This demonstrates a robust retail core that has successfully absorbed the shock of the pandemic and is now in a phase of stable, sustained expansion.

NRF Sales Data

2025 (NRF forecast)

According to the NRF, holiday retail sales are expected to reach $1.01–$1.02T (year-over-year growth of 3.7%–4.2% over 2024). The forecast assumes economic activity supported by employment and disposable personal income, while recognizing that trade policies and price increases could dampen consumer demand at the margins.

What businesses should learn

The long arc shows a market that remains fundamentally strong. Even with persistent inflation and a slower pace post‑2021, holiday retail demand is broad‑based. Retailers that seek savings for shoppers without eroding margin (with targeted promotions and smarter fulfillment) tend to meet consumer demand more profitably.

What is driving the curve

Multiple key economic indicators shape the holiday season.

1. Income and jobs: The current labour market and wage growth underpin consumer spending. Where private sector income softens, elastic categories and nonessential categories see quicker pullbacks.

2. Prices and value: Elevated consumer prices push shoppers to seek savings; promotions moved earlier as retailers support October buying events to capture wallets before the peak shopping season.

3. Channel mix: Online sales continue to rise during the shopping season. Retailers use e‑commerce to test offers, then roll proven bundles to stores to meet consumer demand quickly.

4. Policy noise: Trade uncertainty, the ongoing tariff situation, and any federal government shutdown that delays federal spending and reduces private-sector income can temporarily dampen consumer demand. During the longest government shutdown, retailers adjusted hours, typically hiring later and in smaller waves to match risk.

5. Confidence and sentiment: Shifts in consumer confidence and consumer behavior affect basket mix; value, essentials, and small luxuries often hold up even when households seek savings.

What the NRF leadership signals

Guidance from the trade body helps calibrate expectations.

• The NRF President and CEO has emphasized that American consumers continue to spend, even as they hunt for deals; as President and CEO Matthew consistently notes, an outlook prevails that the holiday shopping season will deliver steady growth. As CEO, Matthew Shay said, retailers will stay promotional but disciplined.

• The NRF Chief Economist highlights economic modeling based on various key economic indicators, reinforcing why the base case is steady retail holiday sales growth despite economic uncertainty. According to the US Retail Industry Association, the retail industry will closely monitor consumer spending patterns and scale hiring in line with demand.

Operational readiness: Turning data into capacity

Let us look at the tactics that convert the forecast into sell‑through.

• Plan for the peak: Use the NRF cadence to shape labor and logistics. Hiring typically starts earlier to stage stores, then flexes as Thursday estimates and POS data confirm demand increases into the holiday shopping crescendo.

• Protect value perception: Shoppers will seek savings; deploy bundles and price locks that preserve margin while signaling fairness during the holiday period.

• Segment by income: Watch for lower-income households trimming nonessential categories first; build entry‑price alternatives without sacrificing quality.

• Watch policy risk: If a government shutdown looms, scenario plan for a slower pace in affected regions and categories; adjust buys to avoid overstock that could dampen consumer demand later.

• Measure what matters: Track retail sales mix, basket size, and service SLAs; use these to monitor consumer spending patterns and maintain the ability to meet consumer demand without excess carryover.

Closing thoughts: Running at the speed of the calendar

The holiday season is where plans meet reality. The data shows a decade of stepwise expansion in holiday retail sales, interrupted but not broken by shocks, and a 2025 path where holiday retail sales are set to crack the trillion mark. The signal from the NRF President is to remain bullish while respecting household budgets; as CEO Matthew Shay said, retailers win when they keep value obvious and service reliable.

With a clear read on key economic indicators and a readiness to flex if federal spending wobbles, the best‑run players will navigate price increases, protect margin, and deliver what American consumers actually want — the right holiday gifts at the right time.