US Toy Sales Statistics 2026: Market Size, Trends & Growth Insights

TL/DR summary

Momentum returned in the first half of 2025: dollar sales increased 6%, units and ASP rose 3% each versus the prior year. Growth is concentrated in games & puzzles, building sets, and explorative and other toys, with licensed toys up 18% and now ~37% of the market. Plan the holiday season with tighter demand sensing, disciplined pricing, and earlier supply alignment.

Key takeaways

• Market size & trajectory: 2024 U.S. toy retail around $42B (100% view); 2025 Toys & Games revenue $41.68B; forecast period CAGR 3.39% to 2030.

• Category leaders: Games and puzzles (+39%), explorative (+19%), and building sets (+7%) in the first half of 2025.

• Licensing matters: Licensed toy sales grew 18%; synchronize assortments with movie release windows and gaming IP.

• Pricing & units: Average selling price ASP and units sold up 3%; sustain value with better builds and bundled toys.

• Demand cohorts: Adults +18%; kids 9–11 +9%, 12–17 +6%; holiday season draws remain key.

Use these signals to prioritize assortments, avoid over-inventorying fading SKUs, and lean into the IP and categories with proven sales momentum. The U.S. toy industry can compound from here if leaders remain vigilant yet optimistic about a market built on imagination and data alike.

Introduction

The U.S. toy market is a bellwether for household confidence and retail agility. In 2024, U.S. retail sales of toys totaled $28.3B (Circana’s panel covering 71% of the market). Moreover, the global toy industry performance remained flat year over year. Yet, the dollar value was 26% above 2019 levels. It was a sign that pricing power, portfolio mix, and licensing continue to shape the toy industry.

In the first half of 2025, momentum returned: dollar sales increased 6%, units sold rose 3%, and average selling price (ASP) advanced 3% versus the same period in 2024. For planning, the broader Toys & Games revenue view pegs 2025 at $41.68B in the U.S., with a projected CAGR of 3.39% (2025–2030). 

This article distills the signals leaders need (from category shifts and licensing dynamics to channel behaviors and seasonality) to make sharper calls in product, pricing, and inventory.

Market overview and size

Circana’s retail tracking service shows the U.S toy market’s dollar value up 26% vs. 2019, despite a flat 2024. When scaled to 100% of the market, the 2024 U.S. toy market size approximates $42.0B. In parallel, the 2025 Toys & Games revenue lens estimates $41.68B, with market growth modeled at a compound annual growth rate of 3.39% through 2030. 

Taken together, these statistics suggest a healthy baseline, resilient consumer preferences, and room for the toy market’s growth as mix shifts toward higher-value IP and specialty experiences.

For planning annual toy sales, anchor category budgets on the Circana baselines and stress test upside scenarios off the skew toward licensed toys. Keep capital allocation flexible to chase performance spikes in entertainment-linked drops.

Summary table: US toy sales benchmarks

Category performance: 2019–2024 baseline and 1H 2025 pivots

The toy industry has cycled through pandemic peaks and normalization. Circana’s panel outlines the supercategory arc:

• Building sets: $1.9B (2019) to $3.7B (2024), +97% vs. 2019, showing durable sales and unit sales engines.

• Games and puzzles: $2.3B to $3.5B (+56% vs. 2019); puzzles grew materially during stay-at-home years, now sustained by strategy and co-play.

• Explorative and other toys: $1.5B to $2.8B (+87%), boosted by STEM kits and collectibles.

• Plush: $1.3B to $2.6B (+102%), a surprise driving force post-2020.

• Action figures & accessories: $1.8B to $2.0B (+12%), sensitive to entertainment licenses.

• Outdoor & sports toys: largest at $4.3B in 2019 and 2024, despite recent softness.

First half of 2025 momentum (vs. same period 2024): 

• Games & puzzles +39%

• Explorative & other toys +19%

• Youth electronics +9%

• Action figures +8%

• Building sets +7%

• Arts & crafts +4%

• Vehicles +2%

The U.S toy industry is clearly rewarding tactile, social play, and IP-driven franchises.

Pricing, units, and mix

Average selling price (ASP) was flat for three consecutive years and ticked up 3% in 1H25, while units sold advanced 3%. With healthier elasticity, shoppers accepted higher prices where value was evident. It is because of complex builds, premium materials, or bundled toys and games. Expect average selling price ASP resilience where brands pair differentiated design with meaningful play.

With dollar sales stable in 2024 and increasing again in early 2025, dollar growth now depends on getting the mix right: lean into building sets, games, and puzzles, and explorative and other toys while watching youth electronics for cyclical uplift.

Licensing: Culture & commerce

Licensed toy sales remain the clearest lever. In 1H25, licensed toy sales grew 18%, gaining ~4 share points of the market. Properties tied to releases and evergreen fandoms outperformed—Pokémon (also lifting strategic trading card games), Final Fantasy, Minecraft, Formula 1, Lilo & Stitch, Sonic the Hedgehog, Star Wars, and Hot Wheels, among other leading properties.

For toy manufacturers, this is the clearest route to continued growth: time assortments to content calendars, and leverage social media to amplify drops.

Demographics and use-cases

Adults are the growth engine. Purchases for recipients 18+ rose 18%; dual-audience items (display-grade action figure collectibles, premium building sets) show solid demand. Among kids, age groups 9–11 (+9%) and 12–17 (+6%) expanded, while 3–5 returned to growth. 

Merchandising should reflect both collector value and durable play value to bring joy across cohorts.

Channels, seasonality, and readiness

Distribution channel implications: e-commerce is critical for discovery and preorders, while specialty, discounters, and department stores anchor hands-on trial and gift runs. The holiday season still compresses retail sales into peak weeks; the industry advisor takeaway is to remain vigilant on supply chains and remain cautious on inventory depth where trends are unproven.

Smart brands and toy manufacturers innovate faster, tighten demand sensing, and place earlier commitments on must-win SKUs.

Visual: History and forecast at a glance

2019–2024 history (Circana retail tracking service) alongside 2025 and 2030 revenue points from the U.S. Toys & Games view.

Taxonomy touchpoints (for merchandising)

• Action figures, building sets, games and puzzles, plush, vehicles, youth electronics, and explorative toys.

• Licensing anchors: Star Wars, Hot Wheels, Final Fantasy, NFL (NFL trading cards), plus other leading properties.

• Store priorities: balance e-commerce speed with in-store demos in department stores and specialty stores to improve conversion rates.

Guidance for 2025 holiday execution

• Inventory playbook: Use Circana’s retail tracking service signals weekly; throttle reorders to categories with verified sales growth; keep contingency for viral strategic trading card games spikes.

• Pricing: Calibrate to sustain the average selling price without choking unit sales. Avoid knee-jerk “double markdowns”; lean on bundles and value-adds.

• Marketing: Pair IP beats with creator content; leverage social media for countdowns; seed reviews to reinforce strong consumer appetite.

• Operations: Stress-test supply chains ahead of Q4; model scenarios for disruptions and higher freight or component prices.

Conclusion · A market built for moments of play

The US Toy Sales Statistics tell a pragmatic story: a toy industry that absorbed volatility, protected value, and is now re-accelerating into 2025 on the back of culture-rich IP, tactile co-play, and smarter channel execution. With first-half momentum across toys and games, a healthier average selling price, and unmistakable pull from licensed toys, the opportunity is to marry fast content cycles with disciplined pricing and supply chains.

Brands that read the signals from the retail tracking service early, shape the right toy market mix (from action figures to building sets), and choreograph the holiday season with operational rigor will outperform. They will bring products that truly bring joy while sustaining a business model that stays in healthy shape through the next set of cycles.